World Cup 2015: Would spinners add spin to the plot?

In light of England's loss at home in ODIs to India and Sri Lanka, Stuart Broad recently said that, England's fallibility to spin would not count for much down under during the World Cup. He may be right, as out of 16 venues for the World Cup (8 each in Australia and New Zealand), the grounds in New Zealand and venues such as Hobart and Canberra in Australia have shorter boundaries, truer wickets with pace and bounce and it would be easier for batsmen to hit the spinners around. This piece analyses based on statistics and past experience, whether spinners would make an impact, if any, at the World Cup.  

Completely discounting the role of spinners in Oceania, especially in the 1992 World Cup would be foolhardy. Martin Crowe's use of Dipak Patel as an opening bowler is considered to be one of the greatest strategies seen at World Cups. Mushtaq Ahmed's performance was crucial to Pakistan's title win.

A look at the numbers of both the bowlers puts their role in their sides into perspective. Mushtaq Ahmed played eight matches in the '92 World Cup, taking 16 wickets at an average of 19.43. These include three wickets versus Australia at Perth, three against England at Melbourne and 2 for 18 from 10 overs against New Zealand at Christchurch, all grounds typically known to be seamer friendly.

Dipak Patel was used by Crowe to open the bowling. He played all his games in New Zealand and came up with returns of eight wickets from nine games at an economy of 3.1 runs an over, thereby, throttling the runs during the fielding restrictions. An economy of 3 in an ODI was gold dust even for ODIs played in the early 1990s. These performances were in stark contrast to both Mushtaq and Dipak's averages in Australia and New Zealand overall.  

Another difference between both the bowlers is that Dipak Patel was a finger spinner, while Mushtaq Ahmed was a wrist spinner. An important aspect was that, Mushtaq was used in an attacking role by Imran Khan and not merely to get through the overs. Therefore, the traditional use of a spinner to pick wickets with flight and guile also found favour at the '92 World Cup in addition to put pressure with slow bowlers upfront in the innings.

Moving on from the lessons from the 1992 World Cup, let's take a look at the performance of spinners in Oceania in the last 23 years. In terms of pure numbers the greatest spinners across the world would be Warne, Murali, Kumble, Afridi and Saqlain Mushtaq, with Harbhajan and Vettori as honorary additions. The table below provides their achievements in numbers in Australia and New Zealand:

Name of Bowler	ODIs played in Oceania	Wickets	Average
Shane Warne	95	152	24.15
Daniel Vettori	144	145	33.86
Muttiah Muralitharan	53	88	28.22
Shahid Afridi	42	45	32.24
Anil Kumble	26	33	31.81
Saqlain Mushtaq	23	31	25.90
Harbhajan Singh	14	14	34.35

This list has three leg spinners and off spinners each, and one left arm spinner. These numbers clearly show that lead spinners across teams have made some incision in both Australia and New Zealand. Though, a breakdown shows Australia as spinner friendly in contrast to New Zealand.

Sydney and Adelaide have always been sporting pitches, which usually assist spinners. But, there have been instances where spinners, who have relied on bounce, have proved to be a handful at other venues in Australia and in New Zealand. Anil Kumble for instance has 19 wickets from 11 games in New Zealand at an average of 24. This includes a five wicket haul in Wellington, a ground which is arguably the worst for spinners. In the post Warne era, Australia used another wrist spinner, Brad Hogg, who took 57 wickets in 43 games at an average of 28.61.

The numbers reflect only a minute difference in the overall impact, wrist spinners have performed slightly better. While, Warne was in a different league altogether, Kumble, Afridi and Hogg relied more on bounce and pace to tie the batsmen down, which must be seen by team managements as a way to use their spinners effectively.  

Currently, the ICC is in a crackdown mode against illicit actions and therefore, options for spinners available for teams are limited. Frontline spinners, Saeed Ajmal and Sunil Narine are currently remedying their actions and may not be available for the World Cup. Pakistan has bigger worries considering even Mohammad Hafeez has been called for a suspect action. In this scenario, let's take a look at the performance in Oceania of some of the first choice spinners across teams right now:

Name of Bowler	ODIs played in Oceania	Wickets	Average
Robin Peterson	7	10	27
Imran Tahir	5	5	40.00
Ravichandran Ashwin	12	8	66
Ravindra Jadeja	13	7	81.14
Ajantha Mendis	2	2	51.50
Rangana Herath	11	9	43.22
James Tredwell	4	0	--
Shakib Al Hasan	9	12	28.66

None of the averages above, barring Shakib Al Hasan seem pleasing. Robin Peterson's performance is slightly misleading as a four wicket haul at Sydney in the recent ODI series in Australia has changed his numbers considerably. He averages in the 40s in New Zealand. Therefore, despite the favourable numbers, it would cannot be said that left arm spin can be an asset. Also, considering how ineffective Ravindra Jadeja has been as recently as early 2014 in New Zealand, this should be even more noteworthy.

Assuming Ajmal and Narine return to their sides respectively, even their records don't inspire much confidence. Narine has returns of 13 wickets from 14 games at an average of 38.75 and an economy of more than 5 runs an over. Ajmal on the other hand has had returns of 3 wickets from 4 games, all of which were played in Australia at an average of 66. In fact if spinners had to used upfront in the innings, economy rates upwards of 5 would hardly be something captains would want to rely on.  

Taking cue from the analysis above of records of wrist spinners, Imran Tahir and Ajantha Mendis are the only wrist spinners which may make it to a playing XI of their respective sides, both of whom haven't had much exposure in Oceania to be considered effective.

This being said, a criteria that should be considered is that the World Cup is an ICC event. Looking back at the experience at the Champions Trophy in England in 2013, Cricket Australia and New Zealand Cricket would ensure drier wickets where spinners may have some role. Also, the fact that the World Cup is being held towards the end of summers in Oceania may also result in drier wickets which may assist turn.

Purely, on numbers and the circumstances resulting out of the present ODI rules, Stuart Broad may stand vindicated at the World Cup. For teams like India, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh, which rely a lot on spinners, this would be a cause of concern. Considering team combinations are still to be fixed, all the teams should try and give a wrist spinner the chance to play to have an impact down under and do well. Though, such an assertion is contingent on the team plan to use spinners in an attacking role.   

Less than 100 days to the World Cup. Preview of the 'Associates'

The World Cup is less than 100 days away and it goes down under after a gap of 23 years. There has been a lot of talk of who the favourites and the dark horses for the tournament are. The current international calendar is such that all the ten full members are currently trying to get their team combinations straight ahead for the tournament and currently all of them have bilateral engagements over the next three months till the tournament starts. However, it must not be forgotten that the tournament is not just a 10 team event. This is a 14 team World Cup and this might be the last time we have such an 'elaborate' fifty over World Cup.

Over the years the World Cup has thrown up very few minnow successes to show that the game's governing body has 106 members. Keeping focus on the World Cup, it would be safe to say that the competitive standard of associate cricket has perhaps never been stronger ever before. If current form is to anything to go by, then there is little to separate between the four associates and full members Bangladesh and Zimbabwe. In fact, considering that the Associates qualified for the World Cup in New Zealand and have played at least six to eight warm up games against state teams of Australia and New Zealand, the Associates might just be better prepared than Bangladesh and Zimbabwe. 

The four associates playing the World Cup are Ireland, United Arab Emirates, Scotland and Afghanistan. It won't be too aggressive to state that a good show at the World Cup might be the strongest statement made by the associates for the ICC to make a more inclusive growth of the sport rather than working towards a greater financial model.

This piece analyses performance of these teams over the last 12 months and highlight one key player who might come across as the lynchpin for the team to build the progress around keeping the conditions in Australia and New Zealand in mind. 

Afghanistan: The fairy tale rise of the sub-continent minnows' to their first 50 over World Cup in just 10 years from Division 6 of the World Cricket League has been aiding the PR machinery of the ICC for the last 5 years. Afghanistan has had a reasonable showing at the international level so far in 2014 under coaches Kabir Khan and Andy Moles. 

Recent performance: They put up a good show at the Asia Cup, beating Bangladesh comprehensively and then went on to draw a 4 match away series against Zimbabwe, thereby showcasing clearly that they belong to the international level albeit at least against the lower ranked full teams. Further, as a part of their preparation, Afghanistan performed admirably against state teams in Australia and New Zealand winning 4 out of 8 games. However, their performance at Perth on bouncy wickets is a concern that they would like to address. They only have a game against New Zealand A in Dubai to set their combination straight though there has been news that special camps would be conducted in Pakistan on specially prepared wickets for the World Cup.

Key player to watch out for: Afghanistan doesn't seem to have a trump card or a talisman that carries the team forward. While earlier, Hamid Hassan would fit in this role, persistent injuries have forced him off the field. From a review of their performances over the past year it seems, a core group of players such as Nawroz Mangal at the top of the order, the pace bowling duo of Shapoor and Dawlat Zadran and all-rounder Mohammad Nabi have been the consistently putting in the works. 

Scotland: Scotland on the other hand have had their ups and downs throughout the year. Besides, they are making a comeback to the World Cup after 2007 and would like to showcase the improvements that they have made over the years.

Recent performance: They lost to the Irish and the Dutch at home and won only 2 of the 7 warm up games in Australia and New Zealand. But the defeats don't really show the competitiveness that the Scots have shown. They gave a full strength New Zealand XI side which included players like Brendon McCullum and Ross Taylor, a run for its money and lost by just a run. A squad with all professional players, playing in the first XIs of English counties, along with the experienced coaches Grant Bradburn and Paul Collingwood have the potential to cause a few upsets in the main draw. 

Key player to watch out for: Kyle Coetzer, the captain for the past two years, has led from the front. Apart from being one of the most consistent performers for Scotland in Associate cricket, he has also performed creditably for Northamptonshire in List A and Twenty20 cricket over the last 2-3 years. An added advantage is the fact that he was among the runs in the warm up games in Australia and New Zealand. 

Ireland: Arguably the flag bearer of taking cricket beyond full member dominance, Ireland has been keeping up its name despite the exodus of star players such as Boyd Rankin (move to England) and Trent Johnston, who has retired. It is brewing new blood in its ranks and is one of the first Associate nations to offer central contracts to retain players from the lure to move to England. 

Recent performance: Ireland's performance against Associates over the last two years is similar to the kind of performance exhibited by Australia during the noughties. Early this year it ran West Indies close in an ODI in the West Indies, ran Sri Lanka and Pakistan horribly close at home and has been dominating Scotland, Afghanistan and Netherlands both home and away. However, their form dipped in the practice games in Australia and New Zealand, owing to injuries and departures of key players and coach. Ireland won only two games out of eight. They now have only two games against New Zealand A in Dubai to set their team combination straight. 

Key player to watch out for: Paul Stirling has been one of the most exciting prospects to come out of Ireland. An aggressive streak at the top of the order, against quality pace is reminiscent of Virender Sehwag of yore, and handy part time off spin would be key in the tournament. Though, he missed out on the warm up games in Australia and New Zealand, Stirling would be a key performer in the Irish squad.  

UAE: UAE is by far the most amateur squad of the Associate nations that are participating at the World Cup. They're making a come back to the World Cup after 19 years and their most memorable moment in international cricket so far has been Sultan Zarawani, strutting out to face Allan Donald wearing a sunhat in Rawalpindi. Donald bounced him off the pitch and they dove into obscurity of international cricket. In the words of their own captain, you cannot take cricket seriously in the UAE at the moment. Lack of professionals in the squad and the presence of mostly expats is the problem that this squad faces. However, they have been brought together enthusiastically by their 43 year old captain Khurram Khan and coach, the former Pakistan international Aaqib Javed. 

Recent performance: They have played a few warm up games and have won 2 out of the 4 games that they played in New Zealand. Besides, their performance at Perth would be something that they could take positives from. Apart from the warm ups, they lost to strong 'A' squads of Pakistan and New Zealand, at home recently. 

Key player to watch out for: Khurram Khan, the captain of the UAE may possibly be the oldest playing professional at the World Cup. At 43, he was still is the top scorer for the UAE in the World Cup qualifiers earlier this year in New Zealand and the World T20 held earlier in Bangladesh. He also bowls handy orthodox left arm spin. 

While, it would be tough to predict, whether any of these sides would qualify for the main draw but at a time when the game is plaguing more issues off the field than on it, we can only hope that the Associates give us new heroes and truly make the contest down under a 'World Cup'.

The post was written for Sportskeeda on 26th November 2014.

Book Review: Rahul Dravid – Timeless Steel

For the generation of cricket lovers that grew up in the late 90s and 2000s, Rahul Dravid’s name epitomises grit beyond being the backbone of the famed Indian batting line-up. He is the epitome of the highest standard of virtue and dedication displayed by a sportsperson who has represented his country at the international level. In a country that produces “Gods” and “Dadas”, Dravid was the more accessible hero of Indian cricket, the role model of the ‘aam aadmi’, who rose above the crowd, while still being one of them. Therefore, any book that attempts to chart him as that hero, both on and off the field, has to reflect in astute detail as to why he is so.

Rahul Dravid – Timeless Steel, brought out by EspnCricinfo and Disney, is a collection of writings on ‘Indian cricket’s go-to man’. For those who ardently follow Cricinfo, the book might seem repetitive as most of the written pieces come from the site itself with minor tweaks and expansions. The 21 authors include notably John Wright, Vijeeta Dravid and Greg Chappell, in addition to Cricinfo regulars, Sambit Bal, Gideon Haigh, Mukul Kesavan and Siddharth Monga. The book is pitched to the buyer “as much a celebration of a colossal cricketer as it is of an exceptional human being”. The cover thus makes it an attractive buy for the ardent cricket fan. That said, the book cannot be judged solely by its cover. The verdict has to be based on a two-pronged question, i.e. is the book just an extension of the web content? And, does it do justice in bringing out the essence of Rahul Dravid, one of the greatest players to have played the game and as effectively as possible?

The book, by and large, does succeed in making a fine addition to your collection. By introducing the man as your ‘regular, everyday superstar’, the book shows that it has its heart in the right place. Structurally, it first sets about looking at Dravid, the player. It speaks in great detail about how, with sheer perseverance and hard work, Dravid acquired his stature as a ‘great’ of the sport. The segment successfully brings out the fact that Dravid always remained a student of the sport, willing to evolve his game to suit the needs of the team. Suresh Menon aptly labels his approach to the game as ‘Kiplingesque’.

Complementing the segment on his persona as a player, are the tributes from his peers. While the usual adherence to his immense concentration seems to be the underlying theme across the book, the words of his contemporaries bring about his qualities as a team man. The best of the lot would easily be from Ed Smith and John Wright who worked with him at Kent. The latter even more so, as he formed a bond with Dravid as his coach for both Kent and later, India. What makes the experience thoroughly enjoyable is the fact that it covers his county stint where he is supposed to be looked at as a senior mentor guiding a club over a strenuous schedule in England. The English county circuit has brought out the best in the game’s greats and the pieces in the book show why Dravid belongs in the league of those players.

The book further reviews his greatest innings; landmarks that have stood out in his career. To most who have followed his career, Kolkata, Leeds, Adelaide, Rawalpindi, Jamaica and Trent Bridge, the innings mentioned in the book, may find easy reference; but for me personally, this list sells the man a little short. I say so for two reasons – one, that the selection does not include any ODI innings and two, even in the Test arena, Dravid’s first test hundred at Johannesburg in 1997 and the 92 at Perth in 2007 do not find mention. Dravid was never touted as a great ODI player but someone who has scored over 10,000 ODI runs must have had some defining moments as a one-day player. His 145 and 153* of 1999 at Taunton and Hyderabad respectively, which got overshadowed by tons from Ganguly and Sachin come to my mind immediately. Also, the 76 at Lahore in 2004 to bring back India in the ODI series against arch rivals Pakistan was another memorable innings.

In fact, throughout the book, Dravid’s role as an ODI player is quite understated. Its only mention is reflected in the statistics put forth by the Cricinfo ‘statsguru’ S. Rajesh. The numbers somehow do not show the effort he put in for the team as the wicketkeeper in 70-odd ODIs. Also, they do not reflect the mentor’s role he played to the likes of Yuvraj, Kaif and Dhoni, teaching them the art of steady accumulation of runs in the one-day game.

With the cricketer being shown first, his peers holding him in the highest possible regard next, the third segment shows Rahul Dravid outside the jersey. The works show him in the best possible light. So much so, that sometimes you feel – is he that good? Especially after the words of his peers, a segment such as the last one may seem like hyperbole. However, the effect is not that bad. Gideon Haigh refers to an incident where Ricky Ponting, the bad boy of world cricket, imposes faith in Dravid’s ability to perform amid a string of poor scores. The strength of the piece is based on the strength of character of the man about whom it is being written. Vijeeta Dravid gives an account of the spouse which shows that behind the calm and the poise, lies an endearing father and husband. In a tongue-in-cheek way, she brings to light that the wall would crumble if asked to change the nappies of his one-year-old in the dead of the night after keeping the bowlers at bay all day in the Trinidad heat.

Apart from celebrating his life till now, the book also showcases interviews by the man himself at different stages of his career. One gets to look into his mind at different stages of his career, including the times when he scored more than 300 runs to take India to victory on foreign soil and when he took over as captain from one of India’s most loved captains ever. His conversations culminate in his speech at the Bradman Oration in Australia last year, which has been lauded by one and all as one of the most delightful insights into cricket in the present day.

To conclude, I would say the book is not definitive; it is not supposed to be. It is supposed to give an ovation to a person who is truly a great ambassador for the sport. It starts off with its heart in the right place but in certain aspects, does let you down by not giving you something that you expect. Though as a disclaimer, I would certainly say that I have been a diehard fan of Rahul Dravid and the book gave me quite a few delightful moments of pleasant surprise by enhancing my knowledge about the man.

What sets apart ‘Timeless Steel’ is that these collections do justice to the fact that Dravid is revered as a great, despite having a career where he was always consigned to remain in the shadows of more glamorous individuals. Dravid’s career has just ended and I am sure there will be more works to follow; however, this book is the first and makes you revisit the glorious career of Indian cricket’s most hardworking servant. A must buy!

P.S. – The Flipkart offer is really, really good!

The article was written for Sportskeeda on 25th July 2012.